North Block officials predict Congress & BJP to get 134 seats each; BJD, TDP, AIADMK, BSP & Left to play as kingmakers

DON’T call it an official forecast, but surely it’s a poll forecast by officials. A poll prediction by a few bureaucrats in North Block, which houses home ministry and finance ministry, has estimated NDA to score marginally over the ruling UPA though both the BJP and the Congress may get exactly 134 seats each. The prediction of the officials, some of whom have a background in political science, has taken into account the inputs in the form of media reports, feedbacks from fellow officials posted in various states across the country and a political trend analysis during the two-month-long election process. Babu Blogger has a copy of the final excel sheet of the projected numbers. The actual counting of the Lok Sabha poll will be held on May 16, 2009. Though the prediction is largely on the line of the media exit polls which too have forecast a hung assembly, it gives six seats more to the NDA (182) over the UPA (176). But unlike the exit polls presented by all national media after the final phase of polls on May 13, 2009, it has placed NDA slightly ahead of the ruling coalition. According to the calculation of the officials, a few parties including BJD (14), TDP (28) AIADMK (30), BSP (35) and Left (29) will play a crucial role in the formation of the next government. The projection of the officials has given 22 seats to Samajwadi Party and mere eight seats to the combo of Lalu Prasad and Ramvilas Paswan in Bihar. Officials Forecast Total seats: 543 NDA: 182 UPA: 176 Third Front: 152 Fourth Front: 33

North Block officials speculate on who would be the next Finance Minister

The officials of the ministry of finance in India have begun speculating on who would be the next finance minister as they have started the process of preparing the general Budget to be presented by the next government in June, 2009. Kapil Sibal from the Congress party could be a major contender to be the finance minister if the Congress comes back to power. Finmin officials, who all worked under P Chidambaram in most part of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, were sure that the current home minister would get no chance to stage a comeback to Finmin even if the Congress manages a similar mandate as in 2004. Also, Pranab Mukherjee, current incumbent, is unlikely to be the full-fledged finance minister as he would take up either external or defence portfolio, officials felt. However, if the BJP-led NDA (National Democratic Alliance) forms the next government, the general feeling in the North Block is that the party's old hat Yaswant Sinha, who is contesting from Hazaribagh in Jharkhand, would present the next Budget. Another BJP veteran Jaswant Singh, who is fighting an electoral battle from Darjeeling constituency in West Bengal, could also be a contender. Yet, no babu in North Block could hazard a guess who would be the country's finance minister if BSP (Bahujan Samaj Party) supremo Mayawati turns lucky to occupy 7, Race Course Road, the official residence of the Prime Minister of India. But yes, Finmin's experienced team of preparing Budget are already getting nervous if Ms Mayawati appoints a Left veteran, say Sitaram Yechurry, as the country's next finance minister!