Friday, May 15, 2009

North Block officials predict Congress & BJP to get 134 seats each; BJD, TDP, AIADMK, BSP & Left to play as kingmakers

DON’T call it an official forecast, but surely it’s a poll forecast by officials. A poll prediction by a few bureaucrats in North Block, which houses home ministry and finance ministry, has estimated NDA to score marginally over the ruling UPA though both the BJP and the Congress may get exactly 134 seats each. The prediction of the officials, some of whom have a background in political science, has taken into account the inputs in the form of media reports, feedbacks from fellow officials posted in various states across the country and a political trend analysis during the two-month-long election process. Babu Blogger has a copy of the final excel sheet of the projected numbers. The actual counting of the Lok Sabha poll will be held on May 16, 2009. Though the prediction is largely on the line of the media exit polls which too have forecast a hung assembly, it gives six seats more to the NDA (182) over the UPA (176). But unlike the exit polls presented by all national media after the final phase of polls on May 13, 2009, it has placed NDA slightly ahead of the ruling coalition. According to the calculation of the officials, a few parties including BJD (14), TDP (28) AIADMK (30), BSP (35) and Left (29) will play a crucial role in the formation of the next government. The projection of the officials has given 22 seats to Samajwadi Party and mere eight seats to the combo of Lalu Prasad and Ramvilas Paswan in Bihar. Officials Forecast Total seats: 543 NDA: 182 UPA: 176 Third Front: 152 Fourth Front: 33

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